Having started out my blogging life as a writer on nonviolence, I must admit it’s hard to really respond to this week’s military actions with the gravity they deserve. Quaker organizations like AFSC and FCNL are speaking out, as they must (“We must act now” and “You can’t bomb your way to peace”) but I can’t get over just how much theater this all is. President Trump gave Iran advance warning of the incoming bunker bombs, plenty of time for Iran to get its stockpiles of near-weapons-grade material out of harm’s way. When Iran retaliated with missiles against U.S. bases in Qatar, they too gave advance warning, giving the U.S. anti-missile defenses the heads-up needed to defend and destroy the incoming barrage.
In reports, Trump is said to have decided on the Iran attack in part because he felt Israel was getting such “good press” for its attacks against Iran (not surprisingly, he fixates on Fox News coverage, which was all-in for Netanyahu’s attacks). U.S. military intelligence says the attacks on Fordo, Iran’s primary nuclear-enrichment site, only delayed a possible creation of a nuclear weapon by months. Why generate such ill-will for such a temporary advantage?
Of course, would we even be in this mess if Trump hadn’t scuttled the hard-won negotiations of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal framework. Even at the time it seemed like Trump was mostly acting out of jealousy that a long-term solution had been the result of his predecessor’s work. There doesn’t seem to be any overarching logic to any of this. It’s all for the TV coverage (the rest of the world’s leaders seem to have figured this out). Is there a really an end-game to Israel assassinating so much of Iranian leadership, including some of the very people who were negotiating deals? And in the midst of this, a real solution to the Palestinian — Israel conflict seems further away than ever.
Peaceful conduct is the best way to set up peaceful resolutions. Iran has always been a country with potential. Encouraging it to give up nuclear and terroristic ambitions, promising it lasting safety, and slowly integrating it back into the world economy is really a win-win for all sides. So why all this theater? What’s the end plan anyway? Or is that such a naive thing to even ask in 2025?